Parma U20 vs Torino U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-11-06 · 15:00 CET
DDWLW
DLWDDThe score model makes a Parma U20 win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.2% vs 52.6% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Parma U20 1.95 – 1.07 Torino U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma U20 win | 57.3% | 55.9% | +1.4% |
| Draw | 22.9% | 20.9% | +2.0% |
| Torino U20 win | 19.8% | 23.2% | -3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 68.9% | -10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 47.4% | -11.6% |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 66.7% | -9.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 47.5% | -8.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Parma U20 29.9 / Torino U20 40.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Parma U20 vs Torino U20 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.