Empoli U20 vs Cagliari U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-11-02 · 11:00 CET
WWDWL
LDDLWThe score model makes an Empoli U20 win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 65.8% vs 55.7% implied (+10.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Empoli U20 1.58 – 1.18 Cagliari U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli U20 win | 46.0% | 47.1% | -1.1% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 23.4% | +2.8% |
| Cagliari U20 win | 27.8% | 29.4% | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 61.5% | -9.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 39.1% | -9.1% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 62.7% | -6.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 44.3% | -10.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Empoli U20 18.3 / Cagliari U20 40 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Empoli U20 vs Cagliari U20 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.