AS Roma U20 vs Monza U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-08-22 · 11:00 CET
WLWWD
LDLLWThe score model made an AS Roma U20 win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AS Roma U20 1.93 – 0.85 Monza U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma U20 win | 62.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Monza U20 win | 15.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AS Roma U20 38.2 / Monza U20 37.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.