Waterford vs Bohemians
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-09 · 14:00
The score model makes an Bohemians win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waterford 1.30 – 1.59 Bohemians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford win | 29.9% | 25.2% | +4.8% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 25.1% | +2.0% |
| Bohemians win | 43.0% | 49.8% | -6.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 57.4% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 36.6% | -3.8% |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 58.8% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 39.1% | +0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waterford 46.3 / Bohemians 51.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.