Waterford vs Bohemians
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-09 · 16:00 CET
DWDDL
LWWWWThe score model made a Bohemians win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 3:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waterford 1.30 – 1.59 Bohemians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford win | 29.9% | 25.3% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 25.1% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Bohemians win | 42.9% | 49.6% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 57.8% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 37.1% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 59.3% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 39.3% | -0.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waterford 46.1 / Bohemians 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.