Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-07 · 21:00 CET
WDDLW
LWDLLThe score model made a Shamrock Rovers win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.82 – 0.84 Dundalk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers win | 59.4% | 56.0% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 24.3% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Dundalk win | 15.8% | 19.7% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 56.3% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 35.6% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 56.5% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 38.9% | -8.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shamrock Rovers 51.1 / Dundalk 34.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.