Galway vs Drogheda
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-07 · 20:45 CET
WDLWL
LLWWLThe score model made a Galway win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Galway 1.44 – 1.05 Drogheda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway win | 44.6% | 44.4% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 28.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Drogheda win | 26.2% | 27.1% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 48.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 28.0% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 53.1% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 33.7% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Galway 45.5 / Drogheda 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.