Derry City vs Sligo Rovers
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-07 · 20:45 CET
LDWDW
LDLLLThe score model made a Derry City win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Derry City 1.77 – 0.79 Sligo Rovers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City win | 59.5% | 65.9% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 20.8% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Sligo Rovers win | 15.2% | 13.3% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 53.5% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 32.3% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 47.3% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 36.9% | -11.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Derry City 50.9 / Sligo Rovers 51.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.