Bray vs Cobh Ramblers
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-10-02 · 20:45 CET
DWWWL
DWLDWThe score model made a Bray win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bray 2.06 – 1.33 Cobh Ramblers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bray win | 54.8% | 56.4% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.9% | 22.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Cobh Ramblers win | 25.2% | 20.9% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | 61.7% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 42.0% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | 59.4% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.7% | 42.6% | +7.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bray 52.3 / Cobh Ramblers 52.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.