Athlone vs Cork City
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-10-02 · 20:45 CET
WDWDW
DLWLLThe score model made a Cork City win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athlone 0.99 – 1.72 Cork City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athlone win | 22.4% | 31.4% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 25.3% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Cork City win | 55.3% | 43.3% | +12.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 59.8% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 40.3% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 62.3% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 41.4% | -8.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athlone 52.3 / Cork City 33.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.