Longford vs Cork City
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-26 · 20:30 CET
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WLLWDThe score model made a Cork City win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Longford 1.05 – 1.77 Cork City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longford win | 23.2% | 23.1% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.8% | 23.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Cork City win | 55.0% | 52.9% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 60.6% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% | 40.4% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 60.5% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 42.1% | -13.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Longford 52.1 / Cork City 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Longford vs Cork City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.