Kerry vs Wexford
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-25 · 20:45 CET
LWWWD
WLDDLThe score model made a Kerry win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kerry 1.36 – 1.12 Wexford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry win | 43.1% | 41.0% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 27.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Wexford win | 31.7% | 32.0% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 52.9% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 32.3% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 57.2% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 36.1% | -11.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kerry 51.5 / Wexford 52.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kerry vs Wexford in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.