Athlone vs Kerry
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-09-18 · 20:45 CET
WDWLL
LWWWDThe score model made an Athlone win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athlone 1.29 – 1.03 Kerry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athlone win | 43.2% | 42.1% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 28.2% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Kerry win | 30.4% | 29.6% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 48.8% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.4% | 29.0% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | 53.7% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 34.0% | -7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athlone 51.8 / Kerry 51.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Athlone vs Kerry in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.