UC Dublin vs Wexford
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-07 · 20:45 CET
DWDDL
LLWLWThe score model made a UC Dublin win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: UC Dublin 1.71 – 0.95 Wexford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Dublin win | 55.7% | 46.8% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 25.9% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Wexford win | 21.4% | 27.3% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 57.1% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 36.6% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 59.3% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 39.2% | -7.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: UC Dublin 46.5 / Wexford 51.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.