Bray vs Finn Harps
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-07 · 20:45 CET
LLDWW
LLLWLThe score model made a Bray win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 5:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bray 2.43 – 0.98 Finn Harps.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bray win | 69.6% | 72.2% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.6% | 16.8% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Finn Harps win | 13.8% | 11.1% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.3% | 67.1% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.5% | 47.7% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 55.3% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 46.7% | -3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bray 51.1 / Finn Harps 50.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.