Athlone vs Longford
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-07 · 20:45 CET
WWWDW
WDLLWThe score model made an Athlone win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athlone 1.27 – 1.19 Longford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athlone win | 38.8% | 39.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 28.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Longford win | 35.2% | 32.2% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 49.5% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.4% | 29.3% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 54.6% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 34.4% | -9.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athlone 51.2 / Longford 51.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.