Kerry vs Cobh Ramblers
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-03 · 18:00 CET
LDWWL
WWDDWThe score model made a Cobh Ramblers win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kerry 1.24 – 1.34 Cobh Ramblers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry win | 35.1% | 39.5% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 28.6% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Cobh Ramblers win | 39.6% | 32.0% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | 50.1% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 30.0% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 55.2% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 34.7% | -3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kerry 49.6 / Cobh Ramblers 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.