Kerry vs Cobh Ramblers
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-03 · 16:00
The score model makes an Cobh Ramblers win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kerry 1.20 – 1.36 Cobh Ramblers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry win | 33.5% | 37.9% | -4.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 28.4% | -2.8% |
| Cobh Ramblers win | 40.8% | 33.7% | +7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.2% | 50.3% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.6% | 30.2% | -4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 55.5% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 34.4% | -2.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kerry 48.8 / Cobh Ramblers 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.