Bray vs Kerry
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-07-31 · 18:45
The score model makes a Bray win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bray 2.28 – 0.97 Kerry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bray win | 67.0% | 57.2% | +9.8% |
| Draw | 18.0% | 24.2% | -6.2% |
| Kerry win | 15.0% | 18.6% | -3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 53.5% | +9.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 33.5% | +7.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 53.1% | +2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 36.9% | +1.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bray 49.9 / Kerry 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.