Bray vs Kerry
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-07-31 · 20:45 CET
WLLDW
LDWWLThe score model made a Bray win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bray 2.28 – 0.97 Kerry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bray win | 67.0% | 56.5% | +10.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.0% | 24.0% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Kerry win | 15.0% | 19.5% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 55.8% | +7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 35.7% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 55.0% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 39.3% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bray 49.8 / Kerry 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.