Goa vs Bengaluru FC
ISL, India · 2026-11-06 · 15:00 CET
DLDDW
WWWWDThe score model makes a Goa win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 56.5% vs 53.1% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goa 1.53 – 1.17 Bengaluru FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goa win | 43.3% | 41.9% | +1.4% |
| Draw | 30.1% | 28.0% | +2.1% |
| Bengaluru FC win | 26.6% | 30.1% | -3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 47.7% | +3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 27.6% | +1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 53.1% | +3.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 32.9% | -1.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Goa 22.3 / Bengaluru FC 22.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Goa vs Bengaluru FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.