Vasas vs Ferencvaros
NB I., Hungary · 2026-11-08 · 19:00 CET
WDLLD
DDDWWThe score model makes a Ferencvaros win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.1% vs 55.8% implied (+10.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vasas 1.19 – 1.75 Ferencvaros.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasas win | 25.2% | 20.1% | +5.1% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 21.9% | +3.4% |
| Ferencvaros win | 49.5% | 58.0% | -8.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | 64.9% | -8.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.9% | 44.2% | -10.3% |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 62.5% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 44.6% | -8.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Vasas 12.4 / Ferencvaros 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vasas vs Ferencvaros in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.