Debrecen vs Ujpest
NB I., Hungary · 2026-11-08 · 15:30 CET
LDWWW
WDLLWThe score model makes a Debrecen win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Debrecen win — 49.4% vs 39.4% implied (+10.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Debrecen 1.99 – 1.45 Ujpest.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debrecen win | 49.4% | 39.4% | +10.0% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.4% | -2.3% |
| Ujpest win | 27.5% | 35.2% | -7.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | 61.2% | +5.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.1% | 40.8% | +4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | 63.7% | +3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.1% | 42.3% | +3.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Debrecen 44.9 / Ujpest 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Debrecen vs Ujpest in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.