Paks vs Zalaegerszegi
NB I., Hungary · 2026-11-07 · 13:30 CET
WWLWL
LWLDWThe score model makes a Paks win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 61.2% vs 53.9% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paks 1.90 – 1.25 Zalaegerszegi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paks win | 51.9% | 52.3% | -0.4% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 23.7% | +0.2% |
| Zalaegerszegi win | 24.3% | 24.0% | +0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | 65.8% | -4.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.8% | 46.1% | -7.4% |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 64.8% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.2% | 45.2% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Paks 44.8 / Zalaegerszegi 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Paks vs Zalaegerszegi in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.