Tiszakecske vs Ajka
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-10-10 · 17:00 CET
WWWDW
WLWLDThe score model made a Tiszakecske win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 4:3 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tiszakecske 1.37 – 0.91 Ajka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiszakecske win | 47.9% | 46.0% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.0% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Ajka win | 25.2% | 27.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 51.1% | -11.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 31.5% | -11.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 54.7% | -10.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 36.1% | -4.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tiszakecske 32 / Ajka 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.