Szentlorinc vs Ajka
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-30 · 17:30 CET
WLLLW
DWWLWThe score model made a Szentlorinc win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Szentlorinc 1.26 – 0.91 Ajka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szentlorinc win | 44.5% | 39.5% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 29.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Ajka win | 26.9% | 31.0% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.9% | 43.9% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.4% | 25.2% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% | 50.3% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 31.3% | -1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Szentlorinc 35.2 / Ajka 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.