Soroksar vs Csakvari
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-30 · 17:30 CET
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LLLDLThe score model made a Soroksar win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 6:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Soroksar 1.78 – 1.30 Csakvari.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soroksar win | 48.9% | 50.8% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.4% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Csakvari win | 28.1% | 23.8% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 54.0% | +5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 34.3% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 56.3% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 39.7% | +3.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Soroksar 41.6 / Csakvari 41.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.