Szeged vs Kazincbarcika
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-31 · 19:30 CET
LWDDL
WWDDLThe score model made a Kazincbarcika win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Szeged 0.95 – 1.03 Kazincbarcika.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szeged win | 32.5% | 37.0% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.5% | 30.2% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Kazincbarcika win | 36.9% | 32.8% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.9% | 45.1% | -13.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.0% | 26.4% | -12.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.3% | 51.2% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.5% | 31.6% | -11.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Szeged 40.5 / Kazincbarcika 22.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.