Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Gyirmot
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-29 · 19:30 CET
WWWLW
WLLWLThe score model made a Mezokovesd-Zsory win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 4:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mezokovesd-Zsory 1.52 – 1.10 Gyirmot.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mezokovesd-Zsory win | 47.2% | 38.5% | +8.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 29.1% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Gyirmot win | 27.4% | 32.4% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 45.8% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 27.0% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 51.9% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.8% | 31.9% | +6.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mezokovesd-Zsory 32.6 / Gyirmot 22.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.