Kecskemeti TE vs Kozarmisleny SE
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-29 · 19:30 CET
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LLLWDThe score model made a Kecskemeti TE win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kecskemeti TE 2.07 – 1.25 Kozarmisleny SE.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kecskemeti TE win | 56.5% | 65.9% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.9% | 20.8% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Kozarmisleny SE win | 22.6% | 13.3% | +9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 55.6% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.4% | 35.8% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | 49.6% | +12.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 39.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kecskemeti TE 23.9 / Kozarmisleny SE 41.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.