Csakvari vs Kazincbarcika
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-23 · 17:30 CET
WLLWL
DDWDWThe score model makes an Kazincbarcika win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Csakvari 1.31 – 1.43 Kazincbarcika.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Csakvari win | 34.5% | — | — |
| Draw | 25.3% | — | — |
| Kazincbarcika win | 40.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Csakvari 41.4 / Kazincbarcika 22 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.