Szentlorinc vs Csakvari
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
WWWDW
WWLLWThe score model makes a Szentlorinc win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Csakvari win — 30.3% vs 28.2% implied (+2.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Szentlorinc 1.49 – 1.19 Csakvari.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Szentlorinc win | 44.0% | 44.6% | -0.5% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.2% | -1.6% |
| Csakvari win | 30.3% | 28.2% | +2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 48.7% | +1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 28.9% | -0.7% |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 53.2% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 32.4% | +1.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Szentlorinc 34.4 / Csakvari 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.