Szentlorinc vs Csakvari
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
WLLLW
LLLDLThe score model made a Szentlorinc win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Szentlorinc 1.50 – 1.20 Csakvari.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Szentlorinc win | 44.1% | 43.7% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 28.5% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Csakvari win | 30.6% | 27.8% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 46.2% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 27.0% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 50.8% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 32.2% | +1.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Szentlorinc 34.3 / Csakvari 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.