Karcagi vs Tiszakecske
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
DWWLD
DWWWDThe score model made a Karcagi win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Karcagi 1.12 – 1.11 Tiszakecske.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karcagi win | 35.9% | 34.7% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 29.3% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Tiszakecske win | 35.4% | 36.1% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 45.5% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 26.4% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 51.7% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 32.0% | -6.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Karcagi 22.5 / Tiszakecske 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.