Karcagi vs Tiszakecske
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
LLDDD
WLDDWThe score model makes a Karcagi win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 81.5% vs 73.5% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Karcagi 1.12 – 1.10 Tiszakecske.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karcagi win | 35.8% | 35.0% | +0.7% |
| Draw | 29.0% | 28.3% | +0.7% |
| Tiszakecske win | 35.2% | 36.6% | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 46.0% | -7.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.5% | 26.5% | -8.0% |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 51.6% | -6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 30.9% | -5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Karcagi 22.6 / Tiszakecske 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.