Kazincbarcika vs Kozarmisleny SE
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-15 · 17:30 CET
WWDDL
LLLWDThe score model made a Kazincbarcika win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kazincbarcika 1.70 – 1.06 Kozarmisleny SE.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazincbarcika win | 52.3% | 54.7% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 24.9% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Kozarmisleny SE win | 23.6% | 20.4% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 53.8% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.8% | 33.7% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | 54.1% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 37.0% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kazincbarcika 21.3 / Kozarmisleny SE 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.