Gyirmot vs Kazincbarcika
Merkantil Bank Liga, Hungary · 2026-08-08 · 17:00 CET
DWLLW
DWWDDThe score model made a Gyirmot win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gyirmot 1.33 – 1.32 Kazincbarcika.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyirmot win | 36.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Kazincbarcika win | 36.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.7% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gyirmot 20.7 / Kazincbarcika 20.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.