AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos
Super League, Greece · 2026-11-08 · 16:00 CET
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LLDDWThe score model made an AEK Athens FC win the most likely outcome at 65%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 1.97 – 0.73 Levadiakos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC win | 64.9% | 76.5% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 16.1% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Levadiakos win | 11.4% | 7.4% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 55.7% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 34.6% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | 39.3% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 38.8% | +2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: AEK Athens FC 16 / Levadiakos 34.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.