Panserraikos vs Karditsa
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-11-15 · 17:00 CET
WDWLW
WWWLDThe score model makes a Panserraikos win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Karditsa win — 29.1% vs 18.3% implied (+10.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Panserraikos 1.28 – 1.01 Karditsa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panserraikos win | 42.3% | 54.4% | -12.1% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.3% | +1.2% |
| Karditsa win | 29.1% | 18.3% | +10.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 40.0% | +0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 42.5% | +3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 28.7% | -0.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Panserraikos 11.3 / Karditsa 27.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Panserraikos vs Karditsa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.