Panionios vs Olympiacos Piraeus B
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-11-15 · 17:00 CET
WDLWL
LDLLLThe score model makes a Panionios win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 47.3% vs 40.7% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Panionios 2.17 – 0.76 Olympiacos Piraeus B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panionios win | 69.5% | 74.4% | -4.8% |
| Draw | 18.8% | 17.6% | +1.2% |
| Olympiacos Piraeus B win | 11.7% | 8.0% | +3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 55.3% | +0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% | 35.4% | -1.7% |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 40.7% | +6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 39.5% | +0.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Panionios 26.9 / Olympiacos Piraeus B 27.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Panionios vs Olympiacos Piraeus B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.