Asteras Tripolis B vs PAOK B
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-11-15 · 17:00 CET
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LWLDWThe score model makes an Asteras Tripolis B win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Asteras Tripolis B win — 50.3% vs 45.9% implied (+4.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis B 1.55 – 0.98 PAOK B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis B win | 50.3% | 45.9% | +4.4% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 28.4% | -2.5% |
| PAOK B win | 23.8% | 25.7% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 43.6% | +2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 24.0% | +0.9% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | 49.0% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 30.4% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Asteras Tripolis B 26.8 / PAOK B 34.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Asteras Tripolis B vs PAOK B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.