Athens Kallithea vs Panionios
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-11-08 · 17:00 CET
WWDDL
LWDLWThe score model makes an Athens Kallithea win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Athens Kallithea win — 38.8% vs 34.0% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athens Kallithea 1.11 – 0.95 Panionios.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athens Kallithea win | 38.8% | 34.0% | +4.8% |
| Draw | 30.4% | 32.1% | -1.7% |
| Panionios win | 30.9% | 34.0% | -3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.0% | 32.9% | +1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.4% | 15.8% | -0.4% |
| Both teams to score | 41.3% | 41.3% | +0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 23.8% | -0.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Athens Kallithea 29.2 / Panionios 26.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Athens Kallithea vs Panionios in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.