PAOK B vs Ellas Syrou
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-10-05 · 13:45 CET
LWLDW
LDLWWThe score model made an Ellas Syrou win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PAOK B 1.17 – 1.45 Ellas Syrou.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK B win | 30.9% | 37.2% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 30.6% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Ellas Syrou win | 43.8% | 32.2% | +11.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 41.7% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 23.0% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 48.9% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 30.3% | +0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PAOK B 30.9 / Ellas Syrou 20.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open PAOK B vs Ellas Syrou in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.