Asteras Tripolis B vs Karditsa
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-10-04 · 14:00 CET
LLWLW
DLDLLThe score model made an Asteras Tripolis B win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 27%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis B 0.92 – 0.89 Karditsa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis B win | 34.8% | 32.5% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.0% | 32.0% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Karditsa win | 33.2% | 35.5% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.3% | 38.3% | -11.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.1% | 20.5% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.2% | 46.6% | -11.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.4% | 27.2% | -4.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Asteras Tripolis B 22.6 / Karditsa 23.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.