Niki Volos vs Chrisoupolis
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-09-27 · 17:00 CET
DWLLL
WDDWLThe score model makes a Niki Volos win the most likely outcome at 57%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 80.6% vs 69.8% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Niki Volos 1.44 – 0.63 Chrisoupolis.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niki Volos win | 57.0% | 62.9% | -6.0% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 24.6% | +1.8% |
| Chrisoupolis win | 16.7% | 12.4% | +4.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.3% | 41.1% | -6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.6% | 22.6% | -7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 35.5% | 37.9% | -2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.4% | 30.2% | -10.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Niki Volos 27.7 / Chrisoupolis 20 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.