Athens Kallithea vs Asteras Tripolis B
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-09-28 · 15:00 CET
WWLWW
LLWLWThe score model made an Athens Kallithea win the most likely outcome at 59%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athens Kallithea 1.54 – 0.67 Asteras Tripolis B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athens Kallithea win | 58.7% | 56.3% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 26.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Asteras Tripolis B win | 16.4% | 16.8% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.8% | 42.2% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.1% | 23.7% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.7% | 42.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 29.4% | +1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athens Kallithea 25.1 / Asteras Tripolis B 21.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.