PAOK B vs Chrisoupolis
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-09-21 · 16:00 CET
DWWDL
DWDDWThe score model makes a PAOK B win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 77.9% vs 74.1% implied (+3.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PAOK B 1.26 – 0.92 Chrisoupolis.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK B win | 44.4% | 43.3% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 30.1% | -1.8% |
| Chrisoupolis win | 27.4% | 26.6% | +0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.1% | 36.6% | +0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.6% | 18.7% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 42.8% | 43.2% | -0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 25.9% | -3.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PAOK B 29.7 / Chrisoupolis 19.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.