Olympiacos Piraeus B vs Marko
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-09-20 · 16:00 CET
LLLDW
WWDWWThe score model makes a Marko win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Olympiacos Piraeus B win — 29.3% vs 12.8% implied (+16.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Olympiacos Piraeus B 0.97 – 1.23 Marko.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos Piraeus B win | 29.3% | 12.8% | +16.5% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 25.2% | +3.3% |
| Marko win | 42.2% | 62.1% | -19.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 40.8% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.1% | 22.9% | -4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 38.3% | +5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.0% | 28.7% | -4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Olympiacos Piraeus B 21.6 / Marko 16.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.