Phonix Lubeck vs Hamburger SV II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-11-08 · 14:00 CET
LWDDW
WLLWWThe score model makes a Phonix Lubeck win the most likely outcome at 66%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Phonix Lubeck win — 65.6% vs 45.9% implied (+19.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Phonix Lubeck 2.34 – 1.05 Hamburger SV II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phonix Lubeck win | 65.6% | 45.9% | +19.6% |
| Draw | 19.7% | 24.7% | -5.0% |
| Hamburger SV II win | 14.8% | 29.4% | -14.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 56.1% | +9.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 33.3% | +10.6% |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 58.6% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.8% | 43.4% | +1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Phonix Lubeck 48.6 / Hamburger SV II 50.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Phonix Lubeck vs Hamburger SV II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.