VfB Oldenburg vs St. Pauli II
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-11-07 · 18:00 CET
LWWWD
LLLWDThe score model makes a VfB Oldenburg win the most likely outcome at 73%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). The data's biggest gap to the market: VfB Oldenburg win — 72.9% vs 64.7% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: VfB Oldenburg 2.66 – 0.96 St. Pauli II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Oldenburg win | 72.9% | 64.7% | +8.2% |
| Draw | 16.4% | 19.6% | -3.2% |
| St. Pauli II win | 10.7% | 15.7% | -5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | 63.5% | +6.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.0% | 41.0% | +8.0% |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 58.0% | +0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.2% | 49.2% | -1.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: VfB Oldenburg 46.8 / St. Pauli II 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open VfB Oldenburg vs St. Pauli II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.