Emden vs Lubeck
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-11-06 · 19:00 CET
LLDLD
DWDLDThe score model makes an Emden win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 60.4% vs 55.9% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Emden 1.71 – 1.48 Lubeck.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emden win | 42.3% | 42.4% | -0.1% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 25.5% | -0.5% |
| Lubeck win | 32.7% | 32.1% | +0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | 63.6% | -1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.6% | 44.1% | -4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | 66.3% | -2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 44.4% | -4.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Emden 43.8 / Lubeck 30.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Emden vs Lubeck in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.