Drochtersen/Assel vs Jeddeloh
Regionalliga North, Germany · 2026-10-03 · 14:00 CET
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LWWLLThe score model made a Drochtersen/Assel win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 7:2 (HT 4:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Drochtersen/Assel 2.33 – 1.31 Jeddeloh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drochtersen/Assel win | 59.7% | 66.5% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.0% | 17.9% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Jeddeloh win | 20.2% | 15.6% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.3% | 71.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.2% | 53.5% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | 64.2% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.5% | 50.3% | -2.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Drochtersen/Assel 47.2 / Jeddeloh 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.