RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-10 · 18:30 CET
WLWLW
DLWDLThe score model made an RB Leipzig win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 6:0 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.25 – 1.38 Eintracht Frankfurt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 56.3% | 59.9% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.4% | 20.0% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 22.2% | 20.1% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | 74.6% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.0% | 55.9% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | 70.3% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 46.1% | 51.6% | -5.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RB Leipzig 41.5 / Eintracht Frankfurt 41.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.