Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-10 · 15:30 CET
WDWLW
DLWDWThe score model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.4% vs 54.9% implied (+9.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mainz 1.32 – 1.70 Bayer Leverkusen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz win | 28.9% | 32.9% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 24.8% | +0.9% |
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 45.4% | 42.4% | +3.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 65.4% | -7.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 45.1% | -9.5% |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | 66.7% | -6.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.8% | 44.4% | +3.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mainz 41.9 / Bayer Leverkusen 41.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.