Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-10-10 · 15:30 CET
LLLWL
DLLLWThe score model makes a Hoffenheim win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 57.9% vs 52.9% implied (+5.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hoffenheim 2.14 – 1.17 Hamburger SV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim win | 58.9% | 66.0% | -7.1% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 19.4% | +2.5% |
| Hamburger SV win | 19.1% | 14.5% | +4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | 67.3% | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.1% | 47.1% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 60.1% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.6% | 46.2% | +2.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hoffenheim 41.9 / Hamburger SV 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.